Western countries are preparing action plans in case Vladimir Putin tries to carry out his threat to use nuclear weapons, and are sending warnings to the Kremlin about the possible consequences.
While the West believes Putin’s threat is unlikely to materialize and does not suggest a change in Moscow’s nuclear strategy, Ukraine’s allies are increasing vigilance and strengthening nuclear deterrence, five Western officials said. “If he thinks his threat will scare Ukraine into giving up 20% of its territory or scare us into withdrawing our support, exactly the opposite is happening,” the senior US official said.
A nuclear strike on Ukraine is unlikely to trigger a nuclear retaliation, but rather Western countries will use conventional weapons to punish Russia, two other officials said. One said: “There are a lot of red lines, and they probably aren’t in the places Putin says they are.”
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan publicly warned that the US is taking the Russian president’s threats “terribly seriously”. He told CBS: “We have communicated directly, privately to the Kremlin at very high levels that the use of nuclear weapons would have catastrophic consequences for Russia, that the United States and our allies would respond forcefully. We have made it clear and substantive what this entails.”
Three of the five officials said NATO countries had also privately conveyed the message to Moscow, underscoring the scale of their response. The threat of retaliation will continue to be used as the most effective deterrent, these people said. The senior US official added: “We have sent a similar private message, even more precise regarding its implications in terms of Russia’s status as a rogue state and our response.”
The deployment of nuclear weapons is complex, time-consuming, and can be easily detected by Western reconnaissance satellites. This means that Putin could escalate his threats and take several additional steps before he comes to the decision to actually resort to it. This will allow the West to adjust its readiness for such actions. According to the official, the United States discussed various scenarios with the Ukrainians and worked out measures for “protection and security.”
If Putin decides to resort to nuclear weapons, officials and analysts say, it would likely be a scenario involving a tactical weapon—a less powerful device that could be used on the battlefield to force the West to withdraw its support for Ukraine.
“Russian nuclear weapons are located in underground shelters that protect against a nuclear attack. The process of putting them on alert and placing warheads on delivery vehicles will generate a huge amount of activity that US intelligence will be able to observe. And it will provide an opportunity for Washington to send a clear message to the Kremlin about what a bad idea this is,” says Simon Miles, a senior lecturer at Duke University’s Sanford School of Government.
Poor preparation and coordination among Russian units deployed to Ukraine suggest that the use of nuclear weapons would have little impact on the battlefield, some military analysts say. “Regardless of whether you want to stop the attack [противника] or attack themselves, it is necessary to ensure interaction with units of conventional armed forces. They [русские] have not demonstrated that they are capable of this,” says Pavel Podvig, senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research.
In addition, he said, the mixed results of conventional missile attacks on Ukrainian targets mean that a nuclear attack could fail:
Ukrainians can shoot down a cruise missile [с ядерной боеголовкой]or it could go off course and end up in a residential building. There is a similar risk – significant uncertainty regarding the success of the strike.