Days after the threat, India attacked on Tuesday evening several mosques and military sites in Pakistan with ballistic missiles, killing 26 civilians and wounding 46 others, to launch a wide spark of mutual bombing between the two sides, amid fears of escalating confrontations into an all -out war.
Tension between India and Pakistan escalated on April 22, after New Delhi accused Islamabad of being behind the attack, targeting tourists in the part of India’s control in the province of Jammu and Kashmir, killing 26 people and wounding others. On the other hand, the Pakistani government denied its responsibility for the irritation and accused the Indian side of practicing a campaign of misleading against it.
The Indian army said in a statement that “its forces launched a missile strike targeting 9 infrastructures for terrorism in Pakistan, Jamo and Kashmir, which is subject to the Pakistani occupation, which was planning and directed terrorist attacks against India.”
Pakistan, which was not too late in responding to the Indian attacks, confirmed by its defense minister Khawaja Mohamed Asif to shoot down 5 fighter planes belonging to the Indian Air Force and one march plane, in addition to destroying the headquarters of the Indian Army’s infantry battalion.
The Pakistani minister explained that “India’s claim that it targeted a false terrorist camps,” saying that all the goals that India set are civilian areas and not camps for militants.
Pakistan was not satisfied with its initial response to the Indian attacks. The Pakistani army spokesman stressed that “his response to the Indian missile attack that targeted sites in Pakistan on Tuesday evening will be firm and comprehensive.”
With the escalation of tension, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided to postpone a European tour to Croatia, the Netherlands and Norway, while the Pakistani National Security Council held an emergency session to discuss the response to the Indian escalation. To leave that open to all possibilities, foremost of which is the confrontation turning into a total war.
Pakistani alert
“The Pakistani forces confirmed that they are in the highest level of readiness, and that they have set 8 goals inside India to bomb them in response to the Indian aggression, and any new attack that will be met with firm and decisive response,” with these words through the researcher and journalist Pakistani Hudhayfah Farid, on the position of the Pakistani authorities.
“Pakistan will not be silent on the Indian attack, and indeed 5 Indian fighters and two captives were brought down and captured a number of Indian soldiers, and an Indian military base was bombed in the occupied Kashmir and an infantry base in Rajastan in Benjab India, but this is not the expected response,” Farid said in a series of tweets on his account.
It is true that India is the one who started this confrontation, but it is Pakistan who will acknowledge when this crisis will end and this escalation, stressing that his country is open to dialogue and ending the crisis, but after the end of the response to the violation of Pakistani sovereignty.
According to Farid, the current escalation will not slip into a comprehensive war or a nuclear war between the two sides, but there will be points of engagement and calculated escalation, stressing that the shooting down will harm the Indian government in the upcoming elections.
The impossibility of war
On the other hand, the Times of India quoted Amargate Singh states former head of the Indian Foreign Intelligence Agency as saying that “he does not think we will fight a war. No one wants a war, especially the generals, because that will only mean destruction. In the war there are no winners.”
“It is very necessary to prepare the public that there are huge costs and risks linked to any military action, and that if Islamabad and Lahore are at the risk of Indian missiles, New Delhi is also at risk of Pakistani missiles,” the newspaper added.
“Based on a quantitative comparison of the military power, the Indian army has a clear advantage in terms of the number of individuals, budget, and the size and development of its traditional military equipment. However, the Pakistani nuclear arsenal is a great deterrent,” the newspaper said.
She pointed to an academic study that warned that a possible nuclear war between India and Pakistan may lead to the killing of up to 125 million people, a collapse in global agriculture, and a climate crisis worldwide.
The newspaper stressed that the results of any possible war will depend on unpredictable factors, such as the nature of conflict, military strategies, technological progress, external support, and the ability of the economy to endure.
Symbolic war
In turn, the European Center for Anti -Terrorism and Intelligence Studies confirmed that the possibility of war remains for several strategic considerations, most notably: that the attack in Bahmam was shocking and unprecedented in terms of its targeting of civilians and tourists, which led to great internal pressure on the Indian government to respond.
The center added in a study entitled “Military escalation between India and Pakistan, scenarios of military confrontation and repercussions?” Both countries moved his forces near the control line in Kashmir, and there is an exchange of shooting almost with the absence of diplomatic communications, which increases the risk of escalation. Also, the two governments face national and popular pressure from the inside.
“The current escalation is dangerous and unprecedented in terms of symbolism and popular pressure, but he will most likely remain within the scope of limited confrontations, or the symbolic war, air and missile strikes, assassinations and information war, without slipping into a comprehensive traditional confrontation,” said the author of the study, researcher Christian Wagner.
“But the greatest danger remains an unintended slide towards a widespread escalation, such as if a wrong military strike falls or an explanation for a field move, which may push one of the two parties to an excessive reaction. In the absence of direct and effective military communication channels between New Delhi and Islamabad, the chances of containing the escalation become limited, and the symbolic war may quickly turn into an actual, unacceptable confrontation.”
Wagner stressed that the decisive factor in the survival of the conflict within the framework of the symbolic war is international pressure, especially from the United States, China and Russia, which seeks to prevent a new conflict in South Asia, because of its catastrophic effects on regional and international stability.
(Tagstotranslate) Politics (T) Asia (T) India (T) Pakistan