In light of the lack of accurate data on the financing conditions in Syria, the new phase, after the success of the Syrian revolution in overthrowing Bashar al-Assad’s regime, imposes many financing burdens, especially since the past 13 years witnessed a state of deterioration in public services, in addition to the absence of the state in many areas. Syrian regions, in terms of social and economic obligations.
The financing crisis after the fall of Al-Assad appears through the statements of caretaker Prime Minister Muhammad Al-Bashir, where he indicated that Syria currently does not have foreign currency, and only has local currency, which is worth nothing, and that Al-Assad left behind a bad legacy of administrative corruption, and that the situation… The country’s finances are very bad.
It can be inferred from the Prime Minister’s statements that the country is in a state of financial exposure. Al-Assad would not have managed the country’s economic and financial conditions in light of his significantly declining resources over the past years, whether at the level of merchandise trade or tourism.
Assad was mainly dependent on foreign aid, and the role of foreign aid and assistance to the defunct Assad regime is evidenced by what was recently published about a ship carrying Iranian oil turning back via the Red Sea, after the announcement of the fall of the Assad regime.
The Syrian economy is between two stages
The population in Syria is more than 23 million people, taking into account that this number includes those who migrated outside the country after Assad’s practices of torture and killing against his people. The geographical area of Syria is about 185 thousand square kilometers.
The Syrian economy is distinguished by its diversity, such as agriculture, industry, and services. Before the outbreak of the revolution in 2011, Syria was characterized by self-sufficiency in many goods, even if it was deprived of aspects of modern technology, due to economic sanctions after that.
The Assad regime’s policy against the areas revolting against it led to negative effects on the economic and social levels, especially after it used violence and killing against demonstrators. While Syria’s gross domestic product was $61.3 billion in 2010, it fell to $7.4 billion in 2023, which is It led to a decline in the per capita GDP to reach $300, while it was $2,748 in 2010, according to the bank’s database figures. International.
If the new administration of the Syrian state is able to establish security and return to productivity during 2025, facilitate the work of various economic activities, and strive to operate public facilities and infrastructure, this will significantly improve the reality of the gross domestic product, rising according to some estimates to $20 billion or more. .
Support burdens
It is difficult for the post-revolution government in Syria to abandon social support, at least, which is represented in several items that were included in the country’s general budget. The fourth clause of the Syrian State General Budget Law for the year 2021 (the latest data available on the Syrian Ministry of Finance website) includes several important matters in the aspect of social support, including: stabilizing prices by supporting agricultural production, providing social aid, subsidizing flour supplies, and subsidizing energy. And support for agricultural fertilizers.
It has been shown that the Syrian budget includes bodies of an administrative nature and others of an economic nature, but its relationship to the state’s general budget is within the framework of the deficit it suffers at the end of the fiscal year, or the surplus it achieves by the end of the year as well.
The 2021 budget was estimated at about 8,500 billion Syrian pounds ($3.3 billion), according to the official exchange rate at the time, at 2,512 pounds to one dollar.
There is no doubt that the new budget will be much higher, given that the revolution targets Syrian territorial integrity and extending security to all parts of the country, which requires financial commitments.
Hence, it is advisable for the caretaker government to prepare a flexible budget for its term of office only, which is estimated to end in March 2025, so that it includes the inevitable expenses, such as salaries and wages, in all sectors of the state, in addition to social support, and strive for unity of revenues and expenses during this period. Period, to harness all state resources to meet basic needs, including food and drink, impose security, and ensure the management of various aspects of economic activity.
There is an important matter that will be one of the government’s priorities, which is related to the return of the displaced and displaced people to their destroyed homes, which require complete restoration or construction, which requires evaluation committees to determine the required support.
In order for the Syrian state to have better financial performance after the revolution, the caretaker government should take into account the following:
Integrating all public institutions that were established outside the areas of control of the previous regime, especially those related to financial and economic aspects, so that there is a single system within the state for revenues and expenditures, and creating a unified budget, especially in the first period, which takes several years.
– Do not abandon international or civil aid programmes. The caretaker government should have a map of needs in which aid is disbursed, so that a greater degree of justice is achieved in meeting the basic needs of society.
If the government is unable to supervise the distribution of aid, then it should be done through civil society institutions and under the auspices of the state. The current situation necessitates that there should not be a state of chaos in the work of foreign aid.
-Working to quickly purify the agencies concerned with collecting fees and public revenues from corrupt and venal officials, whether these are service institutions or in public sector institutions, so that spending can be significantly rationalized and public revenue rates increased. Fees collection should be speeded up and a central electronic information network should be in place. , monitors the flows of these institutions.
-There should be tangible customs exemptions regarding the necessary needs of state institutions or individuals, but it should be taken into account that customs tariffs should be increased on recreational and non-essential goods, so that they are one of the state’s budget resources.
The coming period, if characterized by stability, will allow Syria to be a tourist destination, par excellence, especially since the country has many tourist potentials, in addition to the new components that the revolution has added, from expected attractions to Assad’s palaces, his family, and the pillars of his regime, or what we might call it. Revolution tourism.
This means restoring the spirit to many economic activities in Syria, but from now on, planning should be made so that all the tourist’s requirements, from his arrival until his departure, include local resources and products.
The tourism sector is linked to more than 90 economic activities, which works to revive the local product, provides job opportunities, and brings in foreign currencies.
The most prominent challenge
It is difficult to wait for Syria to recover from its multi-faceted crisis in a short time, especially since the destruction has affected people, trees and stones. Therefore, we found the leader of the revolution, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, sending messages of reassurance to the local and external community, that the interests of his administration are to focus on rebuilding the country, and it is not one of its priorities. Getting into wars.
Here we must mention that political and security stability is the first task, upon which the success of the remaining steps in various social and economic activities will be based, and therefore this matter must be a priority for the work of the caretaker government, and beyond.
The international community is still dealing with the Syrian revolution in a state of uncertainty, and the revolutionaries in Syria will find that they are faced with ambitions and attempts to impose influence, to achieve external agendas, or to weaken the Syrian renaissance project.
At a time when the new Syria is keen to return to the international community, politically and economically, and to lift the economic sanctions on it, they must take into account that they have the peculiarity of a country that emerged from a war that lasted 13 years, and needs to be rebuilt.