Winter played an important role in Russia’s military history – for example, it helped in the battles with Napoleon and Nazi Germany. Weather will once again be a critical factor in the standoff between Ukrainian and Russian forces, which is now in its ninth month, military officials and experts say.
And it’s not just about how to keep warm in a country where temperatures can drop to -30°. In such an extreme situation, it is more difficult to maintain military equipment, booby traps can be hidden under the snow, generators need more fuel, it is better to supply supplies at night because the area is better visible during the day, and the navigation systems of some drones are covered with ice. Even bullets travel slower because cold air is denser than warm air.
“Weather affects any activity, including military activity,” says Alexey Melnyk, a former lieutenant colonel in the Ukrainian Air Force and now co-director of the Alexander Razumkov Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Research. “It will affect both sides.”
But the impact will be different, military experts say.
Vladimir Putin is betting that the massive shelling, which has already destroyed 40% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, will demoralize civilians and undermine Kyiv’s ability to provide for its troops. In recent days, authorities have been warning residents of the capital about more frequent and longer power cuts, and refugees have been asked not to return to the country this winter to avoid increasing the load on the power grid.
The second element of Putin’s strategy is based on the fact that the onset of cold weather usually leads to a decrease in military activity. This would allow Russia to strengthen its defense line and hold the captured territories: this is the main task, according to analysts, set by General Sergei Surovikin, who was recently appointed commander of the Russian group in Ukraine.
Military studies specialist Anthony King, professor at the University of Warrick, says:
It’s colder and darker in winter, so the need for provision increases. More fuel is needed, more problems arise, and all this slows down operations, which is usually beneficial to the defending side.
But Ukraine has its own advantages, which may be more important, especially with regard to providing troops with warm uniforms and weapons. Canada will provide Ukraine with half a million sets of winter uniforms, and at the October NATO summit they discussed how to support the country during the cold period.
“The Russians expect winter to help them, at least in the energy war,” Melnik says. But the Ukrainian army will be in a better position, including thanks to the support of the local population, he points out. During a recent visit to a unit near Kiev, Melnik observed how local residents washed clothes for soldiers and helped provide food and “everything they needed.”
“We have a lot of stuff from volunteers,” says special forces officer Taras Berezovets, who is stationed near Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. – We have gas reserves and autonomous power sources. The command was: get ready.”
In the occupied territories, Russian troops cannot expect such help. Many of the recently mobilized and sent to the front line soldiers are not even provided with weapons. “We are in enemy territory, and we don’t have a single store,” those sent to Zaporozhye recently complained in one video.
Much at the front will depend on what kind of weather sets in – near zero and snow and rain or, for example, -10°, when everything freezes.
A warm winter will undermine Putin’s bid in the energy war, and muddy roads will keep tanks and supply trucks on paved roads. This will make the task easier for the Ukrainians, who have become adept at launching effective attacks on Russian supply lines. They could use the advantage they have “in precision weapons to exhaust Russian troops and make their lives miserable at the front,” says Nikolai Beleskov, chief consultant in the military policy department of the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv.
But mud and mud will also limit Ukraine’s ability to launch a counteroffensive. Heavy rains and rough terrain complicate the task of liberating Kherson, Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov admitted last week.
And “severe frost will allow movement across the fields and theoretically open the way for an attack,” says Beleskov. And he adds:
Maintaining morale in winter is the most important task for both sides. There is a real possibility that Russian troops at the front will face irreversible consequences if they do not receive adequate support.