Will Putin use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? This issue is important not only for Kyiv and Europe, but also for China.
Until now, Beijing has carefully drawn a line between Russia, its strategic partner, and Ukraine, an important trading partner. During a September summit in Samarkand, Vladimir Putin thanked China for its “balanced position” on the Ukrainian conflict. But if Moscow decides to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, China is unlikely to be able to maintain such a position.
In a joint statement between Beijing and Kyiv in December 2013, it was agreed that China would not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and, more importantly, would provide security guarantees in the event of any such threat from a third party. Putin’s increasing nuclear rhetoric thus raises the stakes for Beijing. Last month he said he was ready to defend Russia’s “territorial integrity” by “any means necessary.” If its armed forces are fighting on the battlefield – as they are in areas like Kharkov, where Ukrainian troops are retaking lost territory – then the likelihood that Russia will deploy tactical nuclear missiles only increases.
China has so far refrained from providing any military assistance to Russia. But given Beijing’s enormous influence over Moscow, it is uniquely positioned to do more to prevent a nuclear conflict.
- First, Beijing should ask Moscow to abide by the five nuclear powers’ joint statement in January that “a nuclear war cannot be fought and there are no winners.” Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, and threats to Ukraine, which has decided to give up its nuclear weapons, have already tarnished its reputation. It would be even more terrible if Putin carried out his threat against the citizens of Ukraine, whom he previously described as “virtually one people” with the Russians.
- Second, Beijing must make clear to the Kremlin that using nuclear weapons on the battlefield would put China in a difficult position. Beijing has maintained a policy of “no first use” of nuclear weapons for more than half a century. While other defense policies have changed, this one has remained constant, and China prides itself on having stable and predictable nuclear strategies. The last thing Beijing wants now is to ruin relations with European capitals. At a time when the US is intensifying competition with China, it is especially important that Europe does not always side with America. Putin acknowledged that Beijing had “questions and concerns” about a Russian invasion, but if it used nuclear weapons, Beijing’s response would go far beyond the questions and concerns. Will China be able to maintain neutrality in the event of international protests against Moscow? And can Beijing abstain from voting in the UN Security Council condemning Russia’s actions?
- Finally, Beijing could play a significant mediating role in a deal between Russia and NATO. For example, NATO could promise to stop any further expansion in exchange for Moscow agreeing not to use nuclear weapons.
Such a compromise would save faces on both sides. During the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, US President John Kennedy and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev reached a similar agreement: the Soviets would dismantle their ballistic missiles in Cuba in exchange for a US promise not to invade Cuba again. America also secretly agreed to dismantle all Jupiter medium-range ballistic missiles that were stationed in Turkey for possible use against Russia.
Since Moscow’s main concern is NATO expansion, Putin may find this an option worth considering. NATO should also think about this. The expansion of the alliance despite the Kremlin’s warnings has brought Europe to the brink of a nuclear conflict. Putin is right to conclude that this is a war between Russia and the West, not between Russia and Ukraine. As a gesture of goodwill, NATO could promise not to use nuclear weapons first against Russia or within Moscow’s sphere of influence.
In a 2018 documentary, Putin asked: “Why do we need a world without Russia?” The answer should be: “Why would Russia be without peace?”
If Putin now opens the nuclear Pandora’s box, which remained closed even during the Cold War, it will be infinitely stupid. China can help the world by simply telling Putin: Don’t use nuclear weapons, Mr. President.