The word “diplomacy” has become taboo in American politics. That’s evidenced by the speed with which progressive Democrats this week abandoned their own call for talks with Russia. Only Ukraine can decide when and how this war will end, they insist.
But their only fault was that they spoke too early. Wars end in one of two ways: the unconditional surrender of one side or a peace agreement. The complete capitulation of Russia as the world’s largest nuclear power is almost unimaginable.
This means that the West and Ukraine will eventually have to agree to end the war. This moment has not yet arrived. But it’s probably closer than many people think.
It would be crazy to negotiate a ceasefire with Putin while the Ukrainians are retaking territory. Today, the West urgently needs to provide Ukraine with sufficient firepower to retake Kherson and Donbass before winter sets in.
The stronger Ukraine’s military position next spring, the more likely it is that Putin’s “partial mobilization” will fail to change the situation.
But the situation on the ground—namely, on American soil—will change greatly during this time. Two important factors will influence when Biden tries to end this war.
The first is the likely Republican takeover of one or both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections in two weeks. Kevin McCarthy, the likely next speaker of the House of Representatives, has warned that Republicans will not give “carte blanche” to Ukraine. Earlier this year, 57 House Republicans and 11 senators voted against a $40 billion aid package for Ukraine.
In the Republican effort to make the Biden presidency a scorched earth, no means will be off limits. Overall, the pro-Putin wing of the Republican Party remains in the minority. But almost every Republican will support McCarthy’s likely efforts to impeach Biden. It is naive to assume that consensus on Ukraine will survive what both sides of the United States see as an existential struggle for the republic.
Second, the US is entering a recession. Economists are virtually unanimous that America will not escape this fate in 2023. This would pose a serious threat to the chances of Biden – or another Democratic candidate – to defeat Donald Trump or a Trump-like Republican in 2024.
As the elections approach, the fate of Ukraine will fade into the background. In the end, the faster Ukraine can push back Russian troops, the better for everyone. Biden and US allies still have a window to tilt the advantage in Ukraine’s favor.
But American and Ukrainian interests will diverge as 2024 approaches.
US support is irreplaceable, but the real cost of the war is even higher than the direct costs of it. War fuels inflation, which is so detrimental to democratic prospects. The White House says Ukraine will decide when to end the war. But at some point things may become different.
Biden articulated his line of democracy versus autocracy during the campaign to highlight Trump’s threat to US democracy. Trump’s “semi-fascist” tendencies (according to Biden) are even more dangerous today than when he lost the election. Hundreds of Republicans support Trump’s claim that Biden stole the presidency. And Trump’s return in 2024 would give Putin a free hand.
Over the past eight months, Putin has united the West and created a strong sense of Ukrainian statehood. But the peak of Western unity has probably already been reached. And besides capitulation and a deal, the war has a third outcome – an indefinite freeze. The hotter American politics become, the greater the temptation to freeze Ukraine.