European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said yesterday that Brussels will pursue those who try to circumvent EU sanctions against Russia. This sounded like a warning to Turkey.
“If you take European goods, transport them to third countries, and then to Russia, then the person or organization that does this will be included in our [санкционный] list. This is a very strong deterrent to block a backdoor route through third countries to Russia,” von der Leyen said of the latest round of EU sanctions adopted last week.
Western officials are increasingly concerned that Türkiye could serve as a back door to circumvent sanctions. This is the only NATO member state that has not introduced a sanctions regime. Turkish exports to Russia rose sharply after the latter’s invasion of Ukraine and amounted to $949 million in August compared to $451 million in August 2021.
Being part of the EU customs union and having close economic and political ties with Russia, Turkey could become an opening for local or Western entrepreneurs who want to sell goods to Russia. European Commissioner for Financial Services Mairead McGuinness raised the issue during a visit to Ankara last week.
Turkish officials are “very aware that it is in our common interests to ensure that the customs union is not used to circumvent EU sanctions,” she told the Financial Times.
But there are possibilities for such a bypass, and the EU is “not being naive and wants to make sure” that they are blocked, she added. McGuinness said European officials are scrutinizing statistics to see whether “products that we have sanctioned, components or dual-use items that could potentially help Russia” in its war against Ukraine are coming into Russia through the customs union.
Some in Turkey are skeptical about Brussels’ chances of cracking down as punishment for helping to evade sanctions. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan acts as an important mediator between Russia and Ukraine, and Turkey’s position is also very important for Europe on a number of other issues, including migration. And officials in both Europe and the United States are aware that tough measures that would further damage Turkey’s already struggling economy could play into Erdogan’s hands ahead of elections next year.
However, officials in Turkey insist that although the country has not imposed sanctions, they will not allow it to become a channel for evading them. But Europeans intend to be on their guard. The new measures taken last week should act as a “very strong deterrent” and prevent countries outside the EU from becoming routes for the supply of sanctioned goods to Russia, von der Leyen said.