Mon. Feb 17th, 2025


“We haven’t started anything seriously yet” in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin said last week, days after his troops captured Lisichansk.

In fact, it took the Kremlin three whole months to occupy a fifth of the territory of the Lugansk Republic, as a result of which it completely came under its control. At the same time, Russian troops were unable to carry out the initial plan in Donbass – to encircle and defeat Ukrainian units. They changed tactics and began endlessly bombing border towns and Ukrainian military positions, firing up to 50,000 shells a day.

Third phase of the war

Now the war is entering its third phase, where exhaustion of forces on both sides becomes a critical factor. “The most interesting question is not who will take the next 5 km of land and not where, but what are the long-term prospects for both armies,” Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at the military think tank CNA, said on the War on the Rocks podcast. The main importance, in his opinion, is now the scale of losses and the ability of the parties to restore strength.

Ukraine has in recent weeks deployed US-supplied multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to the front lines, which would theoretically allow it to disrupt the supply of the Russian army and at least partially suppress its artillery. The Ukrainians’ ability to make meaningful progress in this area in the coming weeks could determine the outcome of the conflict, military experts say.

At the same time, Russia’s inability to conduct effective ground operations, as evidenced by the failure of the offensive on Kyiv, is now compensated by brute force – all-out bombing. According to officials in Kyiv, the Russian army still has 10 times more guns than the Ukrainian one. “Russia may still be able to destroy Ukrainian ammunition depots, regular military personnel and the patience of the international community to slowly work its way towards achieving its goals,” write Royal United Services Institute researchers Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds.

They also point out such problems of the Ukrainian army as:

  • chronic shortage of artillery ammunition,
  • lack of trained infantry soldiers and armored vehicles for offensive operations,
  • lack of communication means with encryption function,
  • failure to identify and eliminate Russian electronic warfare systems.

On the other hand, Russia also experiences an acute shortage of military personnel and modern weapons. “Simple math” speaks in favor of Kyiv, says Corey Sheik, director of foreign and defense policy at the American Enterprise Institute: he points to Moscow’s inability to recruit enough soldiers with military experience and, on the other hand, to the growing supply of Western modern weapons to Ukraine .

“About 80% of the army [Путина] is already fighting in Ukraine, they are exhausted, and their progress is minimal. If Putin does not plan a general mobilization, such symbolic successes [как захват Луганской области] do not provide a strengthening of the strategic position. But even if they announce mobilization, it will take months to gather everyone, months to prepare,” says Sheik. And sums it up:

Ukraine has a window of opportunity of about six months to win this war.

“Meters a day”

According to the Ukrainian command, 37,400 Russians have already died in the war. The British government estimates it at 25,000. Whatever the actual numbers, Russia is unable to form full-fledged units and has to offer large sums of money to volunteers for their service.

Russia has lost so much military equipment that it is already forced to use T-62 tanks from the 1960s. and armored personnel carriers of the 1950s. According to a Ukrainian official, in the south of the country S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems are used to fire at ground targets, which indicates a shortage of missiles.

But Russian troops are still dangerous, says British Defense Secretary Ben Wallis:

With 25,000 killed, any other system would have already given in. But they persist with persistence, moving at a speed similar to during the First World War – not even by kilometers, but by meters per day. Maybe they will capture a few empty villages. And then at some point they will be thrown back. With such tactics they lose a huge number of people and weapons.

According to Financial Times calculations based on data from the Institute for the Study of War, from May 1 to July 12, Russian-controlled territory increased by only 5%.

“Russian troops seem to be gradually moving forward,” says Kofman. – But I am very skeptical about their ability to capture Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. These cities are very well fortified, and at this rate of advance, Russian troops may be exhausted before they can mount a successful offensive there.”

The war has entered a transition phase where Russia may try to attack but will also have to defend as Ukraine prepares to launch a counter-offensive, says military specialist Lawrence Friedman, emeritus professor at King’s College London. An important change in the balance of power is being made by the HIMARS MLRS arriving from the United States with a firing range of 70-80 km and a guidance system using GPS.

“The Ukrainians had nothing to oppose to the artillery batteries, but now they have,” says Friedman.

HIMARS significantly reduce the offensive potential of the Russian army, “the losses of the occupiers will increase every week, as will the difficulties with their supply,” President Vladimir Zelensky said in an address to the nation last week.

Battle for Kherson

While Ukraine received eight HIMARS systems, Washington promised four more and London promised four more. But to radically change the balance of power on the battlefield, Ukraine will need dozens of such systems. In addition, Russian forces are likely to change tactics and logistics in response to the emergence of a new threat.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is trying to liberate Kherson, the largest Russian-occupied city, and is gradually occupying the surrounding territory. From a strategic point of view, Kherson is much more important than any of the cities in Donbass, many of which have been reduced to ruins by Russia’s scorched earth tactics.

Kherson also controls the water supply to Crimea.

Failure to free him would severely undermine hopes for Ukraine’s ability to clear territory seized after February 24, Hofman said. The main question here is whether Ukrainian troops are capable of organizing and carrying out a large-scale counter-offensive operation, Friedman adds: some of the soldiers with the greatest combat experience died in the Donbass, and an increasingly large part of the army is made up of volunteers from territorial defense units.

True, in his opinion, even without a successful counteroffensive, the Ukrainians can gradually wear down the Russian military. “Putin’s main problem is maintaining the combat effectiveness and morale of his troops. Ukraine only needs to do one thing – defend its territory,” says Friedman.

Combat training is now no less important than the supply of weapons. A British program launched last week that will see 10,000 troops take a short course every three months. It aims to prepare a second tier of Ukrainian army or forces to take part in a counter-offensive later this year or in 2023, a British official says.

Economic war

Russia’s strongest position is not on the battlefield.

  • It blocks the export of grain from Ukrainian ports, which has already led to a jump in food prices and threatens a number of developing countries with famine.
  • The financial crisis is worsening in Ukraine, which has lost a significant part of tax revenues and foreign exchange earnings from the export of grain, steel and other goods. In June alone, the Central Bank spent $9.3 billion in foreign exchange reserves.
  • To cover the budget deficit, the country now needs $9 billion a month, says Zelensky’s economic adviser Oleg Ustenko. Back in the spring, there was talk of $5-6 billion. The United States has allocated $4 billion in economic assistance and may provide another $6.2 billion by September. The EU has so far agreed on only 1 billion euros out of the promised 9 billion euros.
  • At the same time, Russia declared economic war on Europe, reducing gas supplies. A complete stop in its exports could hit industry, consumers, and lead to a recession.

“Even if Russia stops attacking in the summer or even goes on the defensive, from Moscow’s point of view this will be normal,” says a Western defense adviser. “In the meantime, it could intensify hybrid and economic warfare.” Putin is counting on economic problems from high inflation and gas shortages to force European leaders to pressure Kyiv to make peace on terms favorable to the Kremlin, Ukrainian officials say.

Sheik believes that Putin may be underestimating the willingness of Western countries to resist his aggression, just as he underestimated their determination to help Ukraine at the start of the war:

To their credit, the peoples of all countries that sided with Ukraine are ready to make some sacrifices to preserve its sovereignty. This is great, but it will be difficult to maintain this readiness.


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