The arms plan for Ukraine, hatched in the spring by Germany and Eastern European countries, seemed like a good idea at the time. Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, Greece and the Czech Republic were to send their Soviet-made tanks and armored vehicles to Ukraine, and Germany was to replace them with Western models from its reserves.
This would allow Ukraine to quickly obtain weapons that could be immediately used on the battlefield, and would demonstrate the solidarity of European countries. Instead, the scheme has become a bone of contention, with allies blaming each other for its failure to implement it.
Germany, which initially tried not to provoke Russia by directly supplying arms to Ukraine, admitted this week that, despite lengthy negotiations, it has still not signed a single contract with Eastern European countries. “The deal with Poland is effectively dead,” says a German official.
Tank underexchange
The story with Poland has become an illustrative example of the pitfalls awaiting the parties to the agreement. The defense ministers of Poland and Germany agreed to transfer the tanks in April. Warsaw then sent 240 T-72 tanks to Kyiv, expecting Berlin to provide it with Leopard tanks. He offered only 20 pieces, and “in such a condition that they cannot be used,” and repairs would take at least a year, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak told Sieci magazine this week.
According to him, Poland asked Germany to increase the supply to 44 tanks so that a small battalion could be formed. In Berlin they replied that they could not do this. “The reality is that the Bundeswehr simply does not have enough weapons to share,” says one official.
Now Poland is trying to provide its army with its own forces. In July it announced the purchase of 116 used Abrams tanks from the United States, and on Wednesday it bought nearly 1,000 tanks, more than 600 artillery pieces and dozens of fighter jets from South Korea. The first batch of 180 K2 tanks will arrive in the country this year.
The collapse of the agreement was accompanied by mutual reproaches. Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland Szymon Szynkowski vel Senk in a recent interview with Der Spiegel called Germany’s promises a “swindle.”
And the German Ambassador to Poland Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven, in a conversation with the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita, replied: “I ask myself: what are the intentions of the current authorities in Warsaw? Do they want Germany to be a strong ally of Poland, or do they need us as a scapegoat to solve their own internal problems?”
Insufficient support
Opposition parties in Germany are outraged. “Germany is deliberately squandering all the trust it has built over the years,” said Roderich Kiesewetter, a Christian Democrat member of parliament and a retired Bundeswehr colonel.
The government rejects accusations that it is failing Ukraine and its allies. Kyiv confirmed this week that Germany has supplied Ukraine with the first three of 15 Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, as well as three Mars II multiple launch rocket systems and three PzH armored howitzers, in addition to seven in June, officials said. In addition, the government gave Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, the manufacturer of the PzH 2000, the green light to supply Kyiv with 100 more such systems worth a total of 1.7 billion euros.
Officials also emphasize that the Bundeswehr has deployed Patriot missile batteries in Slovakia (though they remain German property) after that country’s government transferred one of its S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine.
But the opposition did not exchange anger for mercy. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is accused of failing to comply with the April decision of the Bundestag, which obliged the government to provide heavy weapons to Ukraine. “The German public and parliament were deceived. Statements [Шольца] military support for Ukraine does not stand up to criticism,” said Christian Democrat leader Friedrich Merz.
Complex operation
German officials were initially confident that it would be possible to conclude agreements on the transfer of weapons. In May, Scholz said that Greece would provide Ukraine with Soviet armored personnel carriers, and Germany would give it its own. But nothing came of it.
Officials explain this by difficulties in reaching an agreement between the three governments. “There are so many people involved that in the end nothing will come of it,” says a Greek official. His colleagues in Berlin agree. As one of them put it, “This is such a complex operation that if one screw fails, the whole machine breaks down.”
Scholz’s spokeswoman said on Monday the government was not giving up: “We are in close contact with our partners on a number of deals, negotiations are progressing very constructively and some of them are quite advanced.”
Already on Tuesday, Foreign Minister Annalena Bärbock said that Germany is close to concluding an agreement on the transfer of German tanks to the Czech Republic as compensation for dozens of T-72s that it sent to Ukraine.
Nevertheless, in some countries of Eastern Europe there is a strong opinion that Germany is not effectively supporting Ukraine and is slow to fulfill its obligations.
The Germans “simply don’t keep their promises,” said Piotr Arak, director of the Polish Economic Institute. And he added:
Poles are worried that when war fatigue sets in and economic problems begin, [немцы] will ease sanctions and do business with Russia again and import more gas.