Sinai is located in the last period at the intersection of Narin; The requirements of the Egyptian border security after the Gaza war, and a growing Israeli concern about the change of the equations of strength and deployment in the peninsula.
While Cairo believes that strengthening its presence east of the Suez Canal is a defensive necessity to deter “terrorism and smuggling”, Tel Aviv considers this as a violation of the security attaché arrangements for the Camp David Treaty.
In the background, the Red Sea war and its repercussions are pressured on navigation, and the “bright star-2025” navigator is restored by Washington and Cairo, showing a broader alliance network, and the game of messages escalates, as Israel moves its channels in Washington, and Egypt insists on the legitimacy of deploying its forces within the treaties of the treaty.
Maps of Egyptian spread in Sinai
An American report revealed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked Washington to pressure Cairo for claiming “fundamental violations” of the agreement signed in 1979 as a security attaché to the Camp David peace agreement signed in 1978.
Axios reported on Israeli and American officials on September 20 that “Netanyahu presented to Secretary of State Mark Rubio a list of Egyptian activities in Sinai, and considered it a fundamental violation of the treaty,” Axius website reported on September 20 on September 20.
In an official confirmation of the deployment of Egyptian forces in the Sinai, the Egyptian State Information Service, in a statement on September 21, stressed that “the forces in the Sinai are aiming to secure the border, and within the framework of prior coordination with the parties of peace.”
Israeli officials consider that the volume of the spread of the Egyptian army in the Sinai is “much greater” than what the occupation authorities agreed to in bilateral understandings during the last year.
Sinai division
The security file for the Egyptian -Israeli peace agreement provides for the division of Sinai into 3 regions:
- A district A near the Suez Canal and allows the spread of a full military division.
- District B, where only boundary guards are allowed with light weapons.
- The adjacent c and the border is considered to be demilitarized, and it is only allowed to have an armed police with individual weapons.
Field indicators show that Cairo raised the level of readiness and preparation on the lines of the contact of Rafah Sheikh Zuweid and northeast of Sinai, as part of a double endeavor aimed at bridging smuggling gaps and facing the remains of “terrorist cells”, and preventing any forced flow of the population from Gaza.
It was reported that the Egyptian army has strengthened its presence with armored formations and mechanisms for transporting soldiers before the expansion of Israeli operations in Rafah, while artificial satellites have documented settlement and building walls and a wide insulating area on the border line.
And artificial satellite photos showed, according to CNN on February 6, 2024, that “Egypt is building a buffer zone with a width that exceeds two miles with a wall near Rafah.” And a report to Reuters quoted Egyptian military sources on February 10 that “the Egyptian army deployed about 40 tanks and a carrier of soldiers near the Gaza border.”
Israeli position
An Israeli official said, according to what was reported by the American Axius, that “what Egypt is doing in Sinai is very dangerous, and we are very concerned,” considering that the Egyptian military expansion includes the creation of infrastructure that may be used for offensive purposes.
High -level Israeli officials said, in statements reported by Channel 12, that the Egyptian reinforcements in the Sinai have turned into an “additional tension point” between the two sides. They reported that direct contacts between Tel Aviv and Cairo did not make any progress, which prompted Israel to go to Washington.
In an article published by the Maariv newspaper on September 23, the former Israeli ambassador to Egypt, David Govrin, warned that Egypt has been working for years on a “gradual erosion” of the security attaché in the Camp David agreement, by imposing new facts on the ground.
He said that the recent developments in Gaza may give Cairo an excuse to enhance its military presence in Sinai in an unprecedented way, warning that this may open the door to a future confrontation between the two sides.
Govrin reported that the Egyptian officials who met during his service in Cairo considered that it was time to cancel the military restrictions in the Sinai, which was frequently expressed by Egyptian army officers, led by President Abdel Fattah El -Sisi.
Diplomatic tension
In light of the escalation of tension in this file, the statements of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in which he mentioned his dreams of establishing “Greater Israel”, and Cairo condemned these statements and demanded official clarifications.
Egypt has already expressed great recklessness of Netanyahu’s statements regarding the displacement of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing, and a statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stressed that “any invitation or hint of the displacement of the Palestinian people, whether forcibly or voluntarily, from its land, is completely rejected and strongly condemned, and it constitutes a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law, and amounts to the degree of crimes of ethnic cleansing, according to international conventions, including agreements Geneva.
It should also be noted that Cairo has not yet adopted the new Israeli ambassador, while there is no Egyptian ambassador in Tel Aviv, in what observers considered an indication of the lukewarm relationship between the two parties.
The future of Egyptian -Israeli relations
Egypt does not hide its concern about the ongoing war in Gaza and the continuous Israeli attacks in the region, and its impact on the Egyptian national security, and even on the fate of the peace treaty that it binds to Israel.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El -Sisi stated during the Arab -Islamic Summit in Doha that “what is happening now hinders peace opportunities, threatens your security and security of the peoples of the region, and adds obstacles to the chances of any new peace agreements and even invalidate the existing ones.”
Egypt also rejected proposals related to the survival of Israeli forces on the border with Gaza, as the Egyptian Foreign Ministry said on September 18, 2024 that “Egypt will not accept that Israeli forces remain on the border with Gaza and no changes in the security arrangements that existed before the war.”
The former Israeli ambassador to Egypt, David Govrin, stopped at Sisi’s recent speech at the Arab -Islamic Summit held in Qatar, where he described Israel as an “enemy”, in a precedent since the signing of the peace treaty.
He considered that this description reflects an accumulated Egyptian anger, whether due to the war of genocide in Gaza, or the freezing of Israel, the ratification of a huge gas deal worth $ 35 billion.
According to Ambassador Govrin, the Israeli escalation in Gaza and Egypt’s fear of the influx of refugees prompted Cairo to strengthen its military presence in Rafah, which may turn into a starting point for a permanent change in the balance of power in Sinai.
Expanding the military presence
He warned that the continuation of this process may give Egypt an opportunity to exploit the circumstances to expand its military presence, while maintaining it even after the war ended, in a way that resembles a gradual erosion of the security attaché.
Govrin saw that Israel would have difficulty relying on multinational strength in Sinai or even the United States to force Egypt to return to previous restrictions, which could leave it in front of a new reality, which is a stronger and more widespread Egyptian army on its southern borders.
Experts suggest that Israel will continue to raise the pace of observation and diplomatic confrontation at the international level, including the claim from Washington and European capitals to exert pressure to stop what it calls “fundamental violations” by Egypt in Sinai.
The former Israeli ambassador believes that “the alternative to the Palestinian Riviera in Gaza may be a new military confrontation with Egypt,” indicating that the continued erosion of the security attachment may restore the specter of clash between the two sides, and undermine one of the most important achievements of Israel since the signing of the peace agreement more than 4 decades ago.
Cooperation with China
On the other hand, military cooperation between Cairo and Beijing escalated in a way that covers the Sinai Peninsula geographically, especially with regard to air defense systems and joint maneuvers.
The weekly Arabs reported, quoting military sources, during the past week, that “Egypt has strengthened its air defense in the Sinai with the Chinese HQ-9B systems amid the escalation of regional tension.”
In an analytical article last April, the Jewish News Agency considered that the maneuvers of “Eagles of Civilization 2025” represented the first extensive joint training between Egypt and China near the border that includes early warning fighters and offensive aircraft, which was considered by observers a strategic shift in Egypt’s military site.
(Tagstotranslate) Politics (T) Middle East (T) Arabic (T) Egypt