Tensions between China and Taiwan are returning to the forefront again, due to Beijing intensifying its military presence around the island, as part of the Chinese army’s implementation of its largest naval deployment in many years.
In mid-October, Beijing launched massive military exercises around the island, the largest in more than a year, under the name “Joint Sword 2024B.”
Through these maneuvers, China aims to send a warning against “the separatist actions of Taiwan independence forces,” and focused on simulating a blockade of ports and strategic targets in Taiwan, without specifying a date for its end.
On the other hand, Taiwan continues its announcements monitoring unprecedented Chinese military movements around the island as a Chinese response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s tour in the Pacific region, which ended last Friday and included a stop in the American state of Hawaii and the territory of Guam.
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te pledged to “protect” the island, in addition to strengthening its military cooperation with the United States, which is its most prominent international supporter, despite its lack of official recognition as an independent state.
Tension mounts
The roots of the conflict go back to the year 1949, when the Chinese Civil War ended with the victory of the Communist Party led by Mao Zedong and its control over the mainland, while the Nationalist Party “Kuomintang” took refuge in the island of Taiwan and declared it the seat of the Chinese government.
Taiwan lives under a Chinese threat, and these threats emerge with the emergence of any attempts made by Taipei to rapprochement with foreign countries, as Beijing considers them a provocation to it and a threat to its unity and sovereignty, so it practices a policy of diplomatic isolation of Taiwan, and opposes any official contact of those countries with it.
In conjunction with any move of this kind, China begins military action. It condemned President Lai’s recent tour and urged the United States to “stop interfering in the affairs of Taiwan.” This was accompanied by a huge Chinese naval deployment near the island’s waters, described as larger than the one it faced. In August 2022, in response to the visit of then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei.
According to monitoring conducted by the Institute for Global Security and Defense Affairs (IGSDA), China has begun to adopt new tactics such as the economic blockade and encirclement of the island, which increases pressure on Taiwan, in addition to the increased pace of naval and air maneuvers.
The maneuvers constitute a response to the pro-independence Taiwanese government and US arms deals with Taiwan, while their main goal is to reaffirm China’s firm position on the “one-China policy” and deter Taiwan from taking any formal steps towards independence.
It also carries warning messages to Taiwan’s Western allies and displays China’s growing military capabilities, with the aim of maintaining regional hegemony and preventing Western interference in the South China Sea, according to the institute.
Taiwan is considered a pivotal part of the Chinese state’s strategy and a supreme interest for Beijing, and constitutes one of the constants of Chinese national security, as described by the writer and political analyst in international affairs, Thamer Al-Anaswah, especially with the status and economic competition that China enjoys.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Al-Anaswa says that China is about to enter an era different from what it was, which is a new phase led by President Xi Jinping based on several pillars, the most important of which is restoring the historical legacy of the cultural heritage of ancient China by reviving the Chinese national identity, from During the recovery of many lands that were occupied by Western countries, the most recent of which was the withdrawal of American recognition of Taiwan as a pivotal step and stage.

Possible scenarios
The scenarios in the case of the Sino-Taiwan conflict depend on multiple factors related to local and international decisions, and the parties’ willingness to take risks, while experts agree that the current situation indicates an escalating state of tension, but political and military steps may change the equation at any time.
The scene becomes more complex as a result of China’s military superiority, and Taiwan’s adoption of a defense strategy based on enhancing its military capabilities and developing its defense industries, through partnerships with international allies.
Observers believe that reunification is a matter of time, while the question arises: when? Will it happen when Beijing senses a decline in America’s positions in defending Taiwan? Or will it be through other, more diplomatic methods?
In the context of possible scenarios, military expert Brigadier General Ayman Al-Rousan, speaking to Al Jazeera Net, believes that it is possible for China to control the air and sea borders of Taiwan, or impose a complete blockade on the Taiwan Strait, preventing the entry and exit of anything.
He continues that this possibility is available to China using several means and options, including the military option, aerial bombardment, and cyber warfare that seeks to subjugate Taiwan, but he believes that the closest scenario is for China to adopt a policy of unrestricted war with Taiwan, by camouflaging various forms that do not lead to direct combat between the two parties. .
Dream of independence
Political analyst in international affairs, Dr. Thamer Al-Anasu, proposes another scenario related to depriving Taiwan of achieving the dream of independence by preventing international recognition of it. It can be noted that China has achieved great successes in reducing Taiwan from international legitimacy, which will represent a prelude to making the measures to annex it militarily necessary. Considering that Taiwan lacks legal legitimacy.
He added that the next Chinese position will be a point of international tension, similar to what happened in Ukraine in 2014, and this means that the world must prepare for multiple crises in East Asia.
The diplomatic option has another aspect, which is to annex Taiwan peacefully by expanding the circle of trade relations between the two countries. Despite the tensions, China remains a major destination for Taiwan’s exports, as it acquires a large percentage of Taiwanese products such as machines and electronic chips.
This option may lead to the expansion of relations between the two parties, under the framework of the policy of seduction under the pretext of expanding common interests. However, Al-Anasawh believes that this path or scenario is somewhat positive, but it faces some obstacles, the most important of which is that the ruling movement in Taiwan completely opposes this path. 60% of Taiwanese society rejects unity with China, and the growing nationalism of the Taiwanese people represents a major obstacle.
As for the last scenario – as the speakers agree – it is related to maintaining the status quo, and it involves Taiwan continuing its policy of self-rule without gaining international recognition, and China remaining committed to the one-China policy without any military measures, while political tension remains, with Chinese pressure continuing internationally. To reduce support for Taiwan, and Beijing threatens everyone who deals with Taiwan by cutting off relations and communications, banning travel, and other sanctions that in turn work to besiege Taiwan.
The American position
The United States has a pivotal role in this issue. Being the largest global power and a major ally of Taiwan, the role is linked to the changing policies between the American administrations, as they both support Taiwan in confronting China, but they differ in the policy of dealing with the issue.
Current President Joe Biden pursued a policy of support for Taiwan without provoking China, which is called “strategic ambiguity,” in contrast to President-elect Donald Trump, who relies on confrontation and practical, direct support by promoting arms sales and the presence of American ships in the Taiwan Strait.
During his tenure as president of the United States in 2017-2021, Trump’s conflicts with China on the trade front were reflected in the Taiwan issue, as Trump used his support as a pressure card against Beijing, and he considered at the time that its dealings with Taiwan, which lacked international legitimacy, constituted a major threat to regional and international stability.
With his victory in this year’s US elections, there does not appear to be any fundamental change in his dealings with the issue, as Gabriel Sawma – a member of President Trump’s advisory council – says that Trump’s policy is not to abandon the island under Chinese threats, and at the same time he will not use force. US military in the event that China invades Taiwan, and China cannot risk a military war.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Soma says that Trump will respond to China’s threat to Taiwan through US trade sanctions by increasing duties and taxes on Chinese products, indicating that the use of military force against the blockade will not be necessary, despite his emphasis on increasing Taiwan’s military spending to confront potential threats from China.
Soma’s speech is consistent with the context of political analyst Amer Al-Sabaila’s speech to Al Jazeera Net, who believes that China cannot accept Taiwan becoming a point of threat to it, and therefore it has taken escalatory measures to not make the mission easy in the eyes of the Western axis or the United States, as it is waving but not implementing this. The equation may be a basis for negotiating with Trump within the policy of gains and losses that he masters and always desires, instead of escalation.
Thus, the fate of relations between China and Taiwan remains dependent on a combination of internal political transformations in Taiwan and, on the other hand, Chinese strategy, especially under the rule of Xi Jinping, in addition to economic and technical influences. Relations may move towards further escalation or settlements in the long term. However, global positions, especially the United States of America, have a decisive role in determining the course of this issue.