Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine opened the door for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to play the role of statesman and powerful leader. The Turkish president deserves credit for brokering a deal with Kiev and Moscow that allowed grain shipments to resume from Ukrainian ports. But he carefully tried to preserve his own economic ties with Moscow.
Following his four-hour meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday in what appeared to be a warm, cozy atmosphere, Western capitals are concerned that Erdogan is deepening ties with Moscow while his NATO partners are moving in the opposite direction, and The Kremlin is looking for ways to circumvent Western sanctions. The Turkish leader is playing a complex and risky game.
Erdogan has had a rocky relationship with Putin, a fellow power broker and geopolitical rival, especially due to their different priorities in the Syrian conflict. In addition, Ankara angered Moscow by providing Bayraktar attack drones to Kyiv forces. Still, Turkey has not backed US and EU sanctions on Moscow, is buying Russian oil and gas as usual and is keeping its skies open to Russian commercial aircraft as it seeks to retain the lucrative flow of tourists it lost in 2015 after Türkiye shot down a Russian fighter over Syria.
What exactly Erdogan and Putin agreed on in Sochi remains unclear. The joint statement spoke of expanding trade and energy ties and deepening cooperation in sectors such as transport, industry, finance and construction. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister said that Türkiye will begin to partially pay for gas in rubles.
Turkey’s president later said five Turkish banks would switch to Russia’s Mir payment system, a boon for Russian tourists in Turkey after Visa and Mastercard suspended operations in Russia. Western capitals fear the Mir connection could also be used to circumvent sanctions, although there was no evidence Erdogan accepted alleged Russian proposals leaked by Ukrainian intelligence for deeper banking and energy cooperation that could help Moscow escape Western restrictions.
Erdogan has good reason to seek an influx of Russian finances as he seeks re-election next year amid an escalating debt and currency crisis caused largely by his own mismanagement of the economy. Inflation hit a 24-year high of 79.6% in July and the value of the lira against the dollar has halved in 12 months.
Despite Turkey’s NATO membership, it has no legal obligation to impose US and EU sanctions against Russia.
However, any deepening of economic ties with Moscow is likely to fuel friction with the West at a time when Turkey is already dragging its feet on Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Erdogan’s stance also tests the Western alliance’s ability to maintain global sanctions. If sanctions cannot be prevented from leaking through Turkey, it will be even more difficult to contain other emerging markets such as China, which has so far been cautious about helping Russia.
One senior official suggested Western countries could urge companies and banks to leave Turkey if Erdogan follows through on his intentions announced on Friday. But Türkiye is too important geopolitically and for Western business. Europe worries about Ankara’s ability to flood the continent with 3.7 million refugees from Syria and elsewhere – all of whom Türkiye is now hosting.
However, the US has already taken punitive measures against Turkey – for example, for its purchase of a Russian air defense system – and secondary US sanctions pose a risk. While they must be calibrated to avoid domestic backlash that could be exploited by Erdogan, they could still cause damage that would offset the benefits of cooperation with Moscow. In his game of geostrategic poker, Erdogan must be wary of overplaying his hand.