Moscow is losing influence in the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus due to their negative attitude towards the war that Russia unleashed in Ukraine. Kazakhstan has traditionally been one of Russia’s closest partners: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev attended Vladimir Putin’s birthday last week and welcomed him to a regional conference in Astana this Thursday. However, he did not support the invasion of Ukraine, did not recognize the territories annexed by it and stated that Kazakhstan would take care of the Russians who fled from mobilization and ensure their safety.
Kazakh officials, Western diplomats and business leaders in Astana describe the “recalibration” of relations with Russia as a cautious loosening of ties rather than a complete severance. For now, Kazakhstan has no choice but to maintain good relations with its northern neighbor. Forcing Kazakhstan to choose between Russia and the West would be a “very harmful step” that “leads to possible conflict,” one official said:
We are not Baron Munchausen, we cannot pull ourselves out of this region by our hair.
Russia’s debilitating war has created an opportunity for countries like Kazakhstan to “cut where they can” from their dependence on Moscow, says Temur Umarov of the Carnegie Center for International Peace.
Tokayev is making significant diplomatic efforts to increase the number of countries ensuring the stability and security of Kazakhstan. Thus, in August, he signed an intelligence sharing agreement with NATO member Turkey. If this had happened before the war, “it would have been perceived in Moscow as a strong blow,” says Umarov: “But now it is completely unclear how Russia could prevent Kazakhstan from doing this.”
During a visit in September, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to uphold Kazakhstan’s “territorial integrity.” Any country in the region with a large share of the Russian-speaking population is concerned about this, because it was to protect it that Moscow, as it claims, invaded Ukraine.
The Kazakh authorities showed firmness when Moscow recently demanded the expulsion of the Ukrainian ambassador Pyotr Vrublevsky, who spoke about killing Russians. Vrublevsky left Kazakhstan for a month, but returned in early October. The tone of Russian statements is not the tone that “equal strategic partners” should use, says a Kazakh government official.
Astana is pursuing reforms aimed at increasing competition in elections, limiting presidential terms and fighting corruption. It is also actively trying to diversify economic ties, including, according to several officials, seeking alternative routes for energy exports. Distancing from Russia should help business. “If Kazakhstan wants to continue to attract private investment, and especially foreign direct investment, it is very important that it is not put in the same basket as Russia,” says a Western diplomat. “That’s why they went out of their way to emphasize the difference.” [между собой и Россией] after the war began.”
Economic diversification is being carried out “not against anyone,” says Yerkin Tukumov, director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies. The country needs a wide pool of partners to actively develop the economy, this will also ensure political stability. The social reasons for the January protests, which the authorities called an attempt at a coup, have not gone away, adds Tukumov.
Kazakh officials reject the idea that they are indebted to Moscow, which sent troops to quell the protests: The Kremlin acted in its own interests, fearing that protests in a neighboring country would spark unrest in Russia itself.
Now that Russia is engulfed in the war in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and other countries in the region are beginning to take a more independent stance, although they remain careful not to anger Putin. “We will continue to work with Russia, but our negotiating position will strengthen. The rules of the game have changed,” says a political analyst close to the Kazakh authorities.