Khartoum- Nearly 20 months have passed since the last round of indirect negotiations that took place in the city of Jeddah between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, the US administration has returned to intensify its movements in order to push the two parties towards stopping the war in the country, at a time when observers believe that the African move is still weak and tested, while the European Union prevails in a feeling of the firm anger of marginalizing its role.
A few weeks after the outbreak of battles in Khartoum in mid -April 2023, the United States and Saudi Arabia took care of an indirect dialogue between the army and rapid support, and these talks led to the signing of two documents related to the protection of civilians and the ensuring humanitarian aid.
However, these agreements remained ink on paper, as their items were not implemented, and the last round of negotiation that was held at the end of 2023 ended with failure and comment.
When Washington tried in August 2024 to transfer the negotiating file to the Swiss city of Geneva, the Sudanese government strongly rejected it, and announced its adherence to implementing what was reported in the “Jeddah Declaration” as a basic condition before entering into any new stage of the talks.
African position dull
In June 2023, the African Union offered a road map to achieve peace in Sudan, but the decision to suspend Khartoum membership within the Union in addition to the positions of some African countries that differ towards the conflict malfunction with the implementation of this plan.
In the same context, the Government Authority for Development of East African Countries (Igad) failed in its endeavors to hold a meeting that brings together the head of the Sovereign Council and the commander of the army, Abdel -Fattah al -Burhan on the one hand, and the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Muhammad Hamdan Duqalo “Hamidati” on the other hand, in December 2023, which led to the suspension of the efforts of the presidential committee of the authority aimed at bringing peace.
New American moves
In the first direct step for the administration of US President Donald Trump towards the Sudanese crisis, Washington hosted last June a meeting that brought together Deputy Foreign Minister Cretsofer Lando and the ambassadors of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE, in the context of what is known as the “Quartet Group”.
The group was scheduled to hold another meeting at the level of foreign ministers at the end of July 2024 to formulate an integrated peace proposal, but the conflict of positions within it led to the cancellation of the meeting.
In an unexpected development, the American presidential envoy for Middle East and Africa, Massad Paul, met with a proof of a resort near the Swiss Zurich early last week, and the meeting was fully confidential without revealing its results, and later reports revealed a similar meeting that Paul gathered in Hamidi also in Switzerland.
Interior demands for transparency
These secret meetings prompted the leader of the forces of freedom and change (the democratic bloc) Mubarak Ardol – known for his support for the army – to demand the proof through a post on Facebook to reveal the details of what happened during it, stressing that the Sudanese people no longer tolerate more ambiguity and experimentation in policies.
On the other hand, the Democratic Civil Alliance of the Revolutionary Forces, “Samoud” -led by former Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdouk -announced his support for the Trump initiative aimed at ending the fighting, and considered that the meeting with Paul represents a positive step towards launching a serious political process that may lead to a comprehensive settlement of the crisis.
AndAt the same time, sources familiar with the peace file for Al -Jazeera Net reported that countries European Union Not satisfied with its exclusion by the Trump administration, and the absence of coordination with it regarding Sudan.
According to these sources, he urged European Union, The African Union to activate its role so that the file does not withdraw from the “African House”, as it recommended the revival of the “triple mechanism” that includes the African Union and “Igad” And the United Nations.
During the past weeks, the movements of the UN envoy Ramtan Lamamra and the head of the African Union Commission, Mahmoud Ali Youssef, were active, along with “Igad”. All of them welcomed – separately – by appointing Kamel Idris as prime minister, in a move considered a prelude to coordinating efforts towards stopping the fighting and bringing the views closer.
On the other hand, the UN Security Council stressed in its last statement last Wednesday the need to avoid any external interference that exacerbates the Sudanese crisis, and affirmed its support for the efforts of Amamra in order to reach a permanent settlement through dialogue.
As for the African Peace and Security Council, it announced in its last meeting its intention to continue cooperation with all Sudanese parties, based on the road map set by the African Union, stressing that the return to the democratic constitutional system is achieved only through a comprehensive political process led by the Sudanese themselves.
Challenges and obstacles
The writer and editor -in -chief of the newspaper “Al -Naader”, Othman Mirghani, believes that the peace path in Sudan faces two basic holes; The first is the absence of the real will to end the war, as negotiations sometimes take advantage of a tool for maneuver and gain time. As for the second obstacle, it is the difference in decision -making centers within the government, as it is distributed between the military component of the Sovereign Council and some of the political forces in force.
Mirghani adds in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net that it is possible to achieve a quick and sustainable peace at the lowest cost if there is a strategic vision that places the interest of the country and the citizen above the narrow partisan and personal considerations. But he stresses at the same time that international parties do not have the imposition of peace by force, whatever this power is international or American.
Observers believe that Washington is seeking to overcome differences within the Quartet, which caused the freezing of its last meeting, by trying to cause a quick breakthrough in the Sudanese file added to its political achievements.
In this context, the researcher and political analyst Khaled Saad believes that the meetings of the American envoy with the parties to the conflict may lead to a settlement, but it will be threatened with collapse at any moment, and this settlement is expected to start on the traditional American approach through:
- Opening humanitarian corridors for aid.
- Reaching a truce or ceasefire.
- The start of broader political and security arrangements.
Saad notes that the way for this settlement is fraught with obstacles, most notably how to ensure that active regional states are compatible with the future of the situation in Sudan. Despite the difference in the positions of these countries, they are all consistent with the importance of the political role of the Sudanese army.
The formation of the scene
The researcher also number other challenges, including the reshaping of the internal political scene with the participation of the civilian anti -war forces, in addition to defining the future of the Rapid Support Forces as a military and political force, and the associated alliances, in exchange for the army alliances, especially after the war left a complex security reality that is difficult to control.
As for the American pressure papers, Saad indicates the possibility of using sanctions and political isolation, and even the threat to classify the bodies that reject the settlement as terrorist organizations. This may lead some internal forces to make concessions, but at the same time it may lead to sharp divisions within them.
The researcher concludes that the absence of a comprehensive national conviction of the principle of internal settlement will make any prospective agreement a fragile agreement, subject to objection from many national powers, and may start weak by external pressures, but it may develop later to greater affect the path of the political solution.
(Tagstotranslate) Sudan Politics (T) (T) Middle East (T) Arabic